Turkey,Armenia and the stance of Russia for Nagorno-Karabakh ...
Putin's Karabakh stance may hurt Turk-Armenian deal
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent visit to the Russian capital, Moscow, is largely seen as successful in terms of bilateral energy deals. Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin's public remarks on the territorial dispute of Nagorno-Karabakh effectively means a hurdle for the Turkish-Armenian normalization efforts, analysts say.
Putin told Erdoğan during Wednesday's talks that Turkey should not link the Nagorno-Karabakh problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan to the normalization of its bilateral relations with Armenia.
"Both the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and the Turkish-Armenian problem are very complicated by nature. I do not think it is right to tie them into one package," Putin told a news conference after his talks with the Turkish prime minister.
"It is unwise from both tactical and strategic points of view to package these problems," he said.
Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers signed a set of agreements on Oct. 10 under which Ankara and Yerevan should set up normal diplomatic relations and reopen their land border, effectively putting an end to a century of hostile relations.
But there are signs that the reconciliation process is now facing an uphill battle. The Turkey-Armenia accord needs to be ratified by parliaments of the two neighbors before being implemented, but there is no indication of when both nations may bring the deal to their parliaments.
The issue that lies at the root of the problem is the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkey's close friend and ally.
No end in sight for Karabakh
Turkey first wants to see progress toward the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict before opening its border with Armenia. And the Armenians are hinting no sign of this.
Nagorno-Karabakh, a mostly Armenian-populated enclave inside Azerbaijan, and parts of Azerbaijan proper has been under Armenian occupation since a war in the early 1990s. As a result of this war, Turkey has refused to set up normal diplomatic relations with Yerevan and has been keeping the land border with Armenia closed since 1993.
Like Putin, U.S. President Barack Obama's administration has also been urging Turkey to unconditionally put into effect the deal with Yerevan.
Putin's remarks make it clear that Russia has no intention to press the Karabakh Armenians and Yerevan for an urgent reconciliation on the enclave's future. And without strong Russian or U.S. pressure, the Armenians will see little reason to compromise on this matter.
As a result, the Turkish parliament, for its part, will see little reason to ratify the normalization deal with Yerevan, which effectively could mean the collapse or suspension of the reconciliation process.
"In fact, a real reconciliation involving Turkey and Azerbaijan on the one side and Armenia on the other is one of the last things Putin's Russia would want to see, because such a deal may pave the way for the construction of new pipelines carrying Eurasian oil and natural gas to the West, bypassing Russian territory," said a former senior Turkish diplomat.
"Russia is very jealous about its present monopoly in transporting Eurasia's energy resources to the West, and doesn't want to see new and U.S.-backed rivals in an area which it still continues to view as its backyard," said the former diplomat. "So, the status quo is in Russia's benefit."
US front
The potential collapse of the Ankara-Yerevan deal would mean more problems for Turkey in its relationship with the United States, and this plays into the hands of Armenian-American groups.
Despite the possibility of normalized ties between Ankara and Yerevan, Armenian-Americans' top priority is to obtain Washington's recognition of World War I-era killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as “genocide."
"In the face of Turkey's ongoing campaign of denial, we must redouble our efforts to secure U.S. reaffirmation of the Armenian genocide and urge the swift passage of the Armenian genocide resolutions in Congress," said Bryan Ardouny, executive director of the Armenian Assembly of America, a major Armenian-American group, last weekend.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will meet with representatives of major American Armenian groups next month. "The Republic of Armenia through its president, has taken bold steps, yet the Republic of Turkey continues its counterproductive actions with respect to normalizing relations with Armenia," said Ardouny. "As such, this meeting [with Clinton] offers an important opportunity to discuss the U.S. administration's efforts to hold Turkey accountable," he said.
Turkey has strongly warned that any formal U.S. genocide recognition would lead to a major and lasting deterioration of bilateral ties.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Ümit ENGİNSOY
ANKARA - Hürriyet Daily News
( Οι τίτλοι των αναρτήσεων,οι εικονογραφήσεις και οι υπογραμμίσεις γίνονται με ευθύνη του blogger)
( Οι τίτλοι των αναρτήσεων,οι εικονογραφήσεις και οι υπογραμμίσεις γίνονται με ευθύνη του blogger)