Assad's Days Numbered? Think Again
Ο Shlomi Eldar είναι από τους πλέον έγκυρους δημοσιογράφους στο Ισραήλ.
Σε ένα άρθρο – κόλαφο γελοιοποιεί τις έως τώρα επιλογές του Ισραήλ και της Δύσης καλώντας την κυβέρνηση να ετοιμαστεί να συμβιώσει με τον νέο, πιο ενισχυμένο Ασάντ.
Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad carry a national flag
bearing his image as they ride on motorcycles in Qusair, June 5, 2013.
(photo by REUTERS/Mohammed Azakir)
Too many analysts and journalists have based their pronouncements of Assad's "numbered days" on wishful thinking.
Let’s start with a proper disclosure. I also thought that his days were numbered. Maybe he had more than two weeks left, but I followed the rebels’ reports, even if they sometimes bordered on manipulative propaganda, and I came to the conclusion that the man, his family, his government and his ethnic community were all living on borrowed time.
I was absolutely wrong about that.
By now it’s obvious. Like so many others, I reached the conclusion that the wimpy leader who was the butt of everyone’s jokes, and who gave the impression of being like a leaf blown about by the wind, would not stay in power for long. By now it’s quite clear that he not only survived the storm that was the Arab Spring, but that he even managed to repel it with his blood-stained hands.
Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to Syria’s new strongman, Syrian President Bashar Assad. The “wimp” has exited stage right. He has fallen on the sword of a media that elevated his opponents. And from the ruins and battle smoke that continues to hover over Syria’s cities — Assad has risen; Assad the Stubborn, Assad the Survivor, the man whose premature obituaries were greatly exaggerated.
Bashar Assad is preparing to put up a fight in Damascus, just so that he can stay. Despite all their good intentions, plans by Europe and the White House to arm the rebels or provide logistical assistance are unrealistic. They won’t bring down the Syrian regime. They’ll just end up adding to the awful bloodshed there.
Last month [May] the Syrian army and its adjuncts in Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards successfully curbed the rebels’ advances. They managed to take back control of the key city of Qusair and to prepare for the decisive battle for Aleppo. The rebels may have won the propaganda war, but Assad won the battle. It doesn’t matter why. It makes no difference whether it was because of aid from China or Russia, or if it was the result of divisions and disputes among all the rebel groups, which have not had the good sense to consolidate or for any other reason. Bashar Assad proved that if you fire all your weapons, and by that I mean all your tanks, your jets and maybe even your chemical weapons, your chances of winning increase.
Sitting in his palace in Damascus, Bashar Assad can watch al Jazeera with contempt. He can follow live broadcast of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s trial in Cairo, smile to himself and say out loud, “Who do you think you are, Mr. ex-Rais, Mr. ex-President, to tell me how to stay in power?'' By the way, it sounds much better in Arabic.
Beyond the personal issue, it is time to reassess the situation. Was the European decision to lift the embargo on arms shipments to the rebels a wise move? Was it helpful? Is it in the interests of the European Union to help Islamist militias like Jabhat al-Nusra, which is actually a branch of al-Qaeda that dreams of uniting Syria with Iraq and perpetuating the bloodshed and massacres?
Given the way the Syrian crisis was managed, it looks like everybody came out a loser. To the American public, and to the international community as well, the Obama administration failed in its foreign policy. It didn’t read the situation properly. More precisely, it failed again. The same thing that happened to the Americans in Iraq, Afghanistan and Egypt, is happening again in Syria. While President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and others dithered, considered and acted with caution, and then reconsidered and made threats about crossing red lines, only to back down, someone else went for the win.
By "someone else" I mean China and Russia, but mainly Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stood on their hind legs and announced to the world, “We will not let Bashar Assad fall,” and indeed, Assad is showing clear signs that he’s here to stay, and for much longer than two weeks. In the battle between the superpowers, Putin beat Obama. He beat him in a big way.
And then there is another major player in the region: Israel.
Israel spent a long time sitting on the fence. According to news reports, it had been providing some assistance to the rebels, though not in any orderly way, until one fine day it attacked from the air. What came of that? Bitter tensions between Israel and Syria, and a northern border that could blow up at any moment.
So what’s the final conclusion? Should Israel and the West file all their plans for the “day after”? Should they prepare for a Syria led by a different Bashar Assad? It seems to me as if there is no choice but to accept Bashar Assad in his new incarnation. As a leader, what didn’t kill him made him stronger.
Almost all of us, and by that I mean all the journalists, reporters and commentators, based our analyses of events in Syria on false images that we created ourselves.
The time has come for us to mend this distorted picture and to present a very different reality, one not based on wishful thinking or fantasies, but on the facts on the ground.
The sooner we do that, the better.
[ Shlomi Eldar - is a contributing writer for Al-Monitor’s Israel Pulse.
For the past two decades, he has covered the Palestinian Authority and especially the Gaza Strip for Israel’s Channels 1 and 10, and has reported on the emergence of Hamas.
In 2007, he was awarded the Sokolov Prize, Israel’s most important media award, for this work. ]
Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad carry a national flag
bearing his image as they ride on motorcycles in Qusair, June 5, 2013.
(photo by REUTERS/Mohammed Azakir)
Too many analysts and journalists have based their pronouncements of Assad's "numbered days" on wishful thinking.
Let’s start with a proper disclosure. I also thought that his days were numbered. Maybe he had more than two weeks left, but I followed the rebels’ reports, even if they sometimes bordered on manipulative propaganda, and I came to the conclusion that the man, his family, his government and his ethnic community were all living on borrowed time.
I was absolutely wrong about that.
By now it’s obvious. Like so many others, I reached the conclusion that the wimpy leader who was the butt of everyone’s jokes, and who gave the impression of being like a leaf blown about by the wind, would not stay in power for long. By now it’s quite clear that he not only survived the storm that was the Arab Spring, but that he even managed to repel it with his blood-stained hands.
Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to Syria’s new strongman, Syrian President Bashar Assad. The “wimp” has exited stage right. He has fallen on the sword of a media that elevated his opponents. And from the ruins and battle smoke that continues to hover over Syria’s cities — Assad has risen; Assad the Stubborn, Assad the Survivor, the man whose premature obituaries were greatly exaggerated.
Bashar Assad is preparing to put up a fight in Damascus, just so that he can stay. Despite all their good intentions, plans by Europe and the White House to arm the rebels or provide logistical assistance are unrealistic. They won’t bring down the Syrian regime. They’ll just end up adding to the awful bloodshed there.
Last month [May] the Syrian army and its adjuncts in Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards successfully curbed the rebels’ advances. They managed to take back control of the key city of Qusair and to prepare for the decisive battle for Aleppo. The rebels may have won the propaganda war, but Assad won the battle. It doesn’t matter why. It makes no difference whether it was because of aid from China or Russia, or if it was the result of divisions and disputes among all the rebel groups, which have not had the good sense to consolidate or for any other reason. Bashar Assad proved that if you fire all your weapons, and by that I mean all your tanks, your jets and maybe even your chemical weapons, your chances of winning increase.
Sitting in his palace in Damascus, Bashar Assad can watch al Jazeera with contempt. He can follow live broadcast of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s trial in Cairo, smile to himself and say out loud, “Who do you think you are, Mr. ex-Rais, Mr. ex-President, to tell me how to stay in power?'' By the way, it sounds much better in Arabic.
Beyond the personal issue, it is time to reassess the situation. Was the European decision to lift the embargo on arms shipments to the rebels a wise move? Was it helpful? Is it in the interests of the European Union to help Islamist militias like Jabhat al-Nusra, which is actually a branch of al-Qaeda that dreams of uniting Syria with Iraq and perpetuating the bloodshed and massacres?
Given the way the Syrian crisis was managed, it looks like everybody came out a loser. To the American public, and to the international community as well, the Obama administration failed in its foreign policy. It didn’t read the situation properly. More precisely, it failed again. The same thing that happened to the Americans in Iraq, Afghanistan and Egypt, is happening again in Syria. While President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and others dithered, considered and acted with caution, and then reconsidered and made threats about crossing red lines, only to back down, someone else went for the win.
By "someone else" I mean China and Russia, but mainly Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stood on their hind legs and announced to the world, “We will not let Bashar Assad fall,” and indeed, Assad is showing clear signs that he’s here to stay, and for much longer than two weeks. In the battle between the superpowers, Putin beat Obama. He beat him in a big way.
And then there is another major player in the region: Israel.
Israel spent a long time sitting on the fence. According to news reports, it had been providing some assistance to the rebels, though not in any orderly way, until one fine day it attacked from the air. What came of that? Bitter tensions between Israel and Syria, and a northern border that could blow up at any moment.
So what’s the final conclusion? Should Israel and the West file all their plans for the “day after”? Should they prepare for a Syria led by a different Bashar Assad? It seems to me as if there is no choice but to accept Bashar Assad in his new incarnation. As a leader, what didn’t kill him made him stronger.
Almost all of us, and by that I mean all the journalists, reporters and commentators, based our analyses of events in Syria on false images that we created ourselves.
The time has come for us to mend this distorted picture and to present a very different reality, one not based on wishful thinking or fantasies, but on the facts on the ground.
The sooner we do that, the better.
By:Shlomi Eldar
for Al-Monitor Israel Pulse
ΤΟ ΚΕΙΜΕΝΟ ΤΗΣ ΑΝΑΡΤΗΣΕΩΣ ΔΗΜΟΣΙΕΥΕΤΑΙ ΣΤΗΝ ΙΣΤΟΣΕΛΙΔΑ:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/
2013/06/assad-survive-analysts.html#ixzz2WOubqHAE
For the past two decades, he has covered the Palestinian Authority and especially the Gaza Strip for Israel’s Channels 1 and 10, and has reported on the emergence of Hamas.
In 2007, he was awarded the Sokolov Prize, Israel’s most important media award, for this work. ]
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ
SYRIA:ΦΡΙΚΗ ...
Ο μικρομεγαλισμός του Ταγίπ Ερντογάν
Ο μικρομεγαλισμός του Ταγίπ Ερντογάν
Μπρζεζίνσκι: «Ο Ομπάμα δεν έχει στρατηγική για τη Συρία
Νίκη του συριακού στρατού - Έπεσε η Χιρμπέτ Γαζάλεχ - Αποκοπή ισλαμιστών από Ιορδανία
Συμφωνία Ρωσίας-ΗΠΑ για Συρία, το καταλυτικό επιχείρημα, τέλος ο Άσαντ;
Νίκη του συριακού στρατού - Έπεσε η Χιρμπέτ Γαζάλεχ - Αποκοπή ισλαμιστών από Ιορδανία
Συμφωνία Ρωσίας-ΗΠΑ για Συρία, το καταλυτικό επιχείρημα, τέλος ο Άσαντ;
Ξαναχτυπά και στη Συρία ο «Ευρωπαίος ηλίθιος»…
ΣΥΝΕΧΙΖΕΤΑΙ ΤΟ ΘΡΙΛΕΡ - Αγνωστη η τύχη των μητροπολιτών.
Στη δημοσιότητα βίντεο-σοκ του νεκρού οδηγού
Ισλαμιστές απήγαγαν στην Συρία τον Ελληνορθόδοξο Μητροπολίτη Χαλεπίου Παύλο
ΣΚΟΤΩΣΑΝ ΔΥΟ ΣΥΝΟΔΟΥΣ ΤΟΥ
Και μετά τον ΄Ασαντ το χάος;
Playing with fire, Turkey will get burned
International peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said Friday that a devastating bomb blast in the Syrian capital was a "war crime" that had left about 100 people dead.Assad's government and the opposition have blamed the Damascus attack on "terrorists".
Panetta backs Syria rebels arms plan Thierry Meyssan:Το ΝΑΤΟ παίζει "βρώμικα" στη Συρία
Syria: Islamist Nusra Front gives BBC exclusive interview "Η Τουρκία και ο συριακός εμφύλιος"
Syria - CRISIS
Turkey being sidelined on Syria
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΗ "ΑΛΛΗΛΕΓΓΥΗ" ΣΕ ΤΟΥΡΚΙΑ-ΙΣΛΑΜΙΣΤΕΣ: Η ΕΥΠ ΣΤΗΝ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΕΤΤΑ!
We cannot control the Syrian gate
Τουρκο-νατοϊκοι θεατρινισμοί ...
AΝΤΙΠΕΡΙΣΠΑΣΜΟΣ ΑΠΟ ΤΟ ΙΡΑΝ
SYRIA:Το ΝΑΤΟ αναδιπλώνεται, η Τουρκία στα πρόθυρα της υστερίας
Facts and lies about Turkey vs. Syria
The Syria crisis has started damaging us
Be wary of playing Turkey’s great game
Τουρκία, Συρία και στο βάθος Κούρδοι
Ανατροπές στη Συρία, πανικός στην Αγκυρα
The paradox of Turkish foreign policy
Thierry Meyssan:Το ΝΑΤΟ παίζει "βρώμικα" στη Συρία
Russia will not let go of al-Assad easily
Ρωσία και Τουρκία αναζητούν νέες ισορροπίες στην συριακή κρίση
Syria and the AKP’s “learning curve”
Συριακή περιπλοκή
Τύμπανα πολέμου στην Αν. Μεσόγειο - Προκαλώντας τον Ασαντ, η Τουρκία επιδιώκει να ηγηθεί μελλοντικής στρατιωτικής επέμβασης
SYRIA:Who is helping "terrorism" to attack Syrians?
A well-managed crisis has been overcome
Έρχεται καύσωνας!
Το κόστος της συριακής κρίσης για την Τουρκία
Confusing Turkey
Tough times for Turks on border with Syria
ΣΥΝΕΧΙΖΕΤΑΙ ΤΟ ΘΡΙΛΕΡ - Αγνωστη η τύχη των μητροπολιτών.
Στη δημοσιότητα βίντεο-σοκ του νεκρού οδηγού
Ισλαμιστές απήγαγαν στην Συρία τον Ελληνορθόδοξο Μητροπολίτη Χαλεπίου Παύλο
ΣΚΟΤΩΣΑΝ ΔΥΟ ΣΥΝΟΔΟΥΣ ΤΟΥ
Και μετά τον ΄Ασαντ το χάος;
Playing with fire, Turkey will get burned
International peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said Friday that a devastating bomb blast in the Syrian capital was a "war crime" that had left about 100 people dead.Assad's government and the opposition have blamed the Damascus attack on "terrorists".
Panetta backs Syria rebels arms plan Thierry Meyssan:Το ΝΑΤΟ παίζει "βρώμικα" στη Συρία
Syria: Islamist Nusra Front gives BBC exclusive interview "Η Τουρκία και ο συριακός εμφύλιος"
Syria - CRISIS
Turkey being sidelined on Syria
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΗ "ΑΛΛΗΛΕΓΓΥΗ" ΣΕ ΤΟΥΡΚΙΑ-ΙΣΛΑΜΙΣΤΕΣ: Η ΕΥΠ ΣΤΗΝ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΕΤΤΑ!
We cannot control the Syrian gate
Τουρκο-νατοϊκοι θεατρινισμοί ...
AΝΤΙΠΕΡΙΣΠΑΣΜΟΣ ΑΠΟ ΤΟ ΙΡΑΝ
SYRIA:Το ΝΑΤΟ αναδιπλώνεται, η Τουρκία στα πρόθυρα της υστερίας
Facts and lies about Turkey vs. Syria
The Syria crisis has started damaging us
Be wary of playing Turkey’s great game
Τουρκία, Συρία και στο βάθος Κούρδοι
Ανατροπές στη Συρία, πανικός στην Αγκυρα
The paradox of Turkish foreign policy
Thierry Meyssan:Το ΝΑΤΟ παίζει "βρώμικα" στη Συρία
Russia will not let go of al-Assad easily
Ρωσία και Τουρκία αναζητούν νέες ισορροπίες στην συριακή κρίση
Syria and the AKP’s “learning curve”
Συριακή περιπλοκή
Τύμπανα πολέμου στην Αν. Μεσόγειο - Προκαλώντας τον Ασαντ, η Τουρκία επιδιώκει να ηγηθεί μελλοντικής στρατιωτικής επέμβασης
SYRIA:Who is helping "terrorism" to attack Syrians?
A well-managed crisis has been overcome
Έρχεται καύσωνας!
Το κόστος της συριακής κρίσης για την Τουρκία
Confusing Turkey
Tough times for Turks on border with Syria
